Relying on last century’s growth model
Imagine the year is 2100, a man holds up the original 1984 Macintosh computer and says, “Using this technology we will grow our IT sector!”. Everyone cheers and applauds. Some, at the fringes, try to say that prosperity cannot come from technologies of centuries past. The Macintosh was, after all, invented 116 years ago. There are new solutions now, quantum computing has already shown its capabilities. How about investing in that? However, these detractors are sneered at and shut out.
Obviously, this scenario seems exceedingly implausible and almost facetious but for a moment, ask yourself if you have seen any version of it in your own life. You might be surprised to find that the answer is yes.
Replace the 1984 Macintosh with coal-fired power plants. The year is 2025, many countries have highly mobilised groups that hold onto a technology of a bygone era.1 The first coal-fired power plant appeared 143 years ago in 1882 – Holborn Viaduct Power Station – built by American inventor, Thomas Edison, in London.
Many countries already have modern clean energy grids
More than a century has passed since this moment, and new technologies are on the table. Countries have demonstrated that clean energy is not just a pipe dream. Denmark is getting more than half of its electricity from wind generation, Germany is meeting 40% of its electricity needs from solar and wind, and the UK is building out grid-scale batteries.2
But it is not just a “Western phenomenon” - countries in the Global South are transforming their electricity mix too. Utilising the wind, sun, and the heat of the Earth respectively, Uruguay, Chile and Kenya are all clean energy leaders. Many of these countries unilaterally made the switch to clean power after crippling oil price shocks.
Yet, the idea that an old technology can power new growth is hard to shake off. This narrative is promulgated repeatedly in the energy space and its absurdity is masked.
A status quo bias
Advocates for renewable energy are often portrayed as wishful and unscientific - as if somehow they have forgotten about sunset. While advocates for fossil fuel are clear-eyed and focussed.
But there is a revolution happening, and to see it we must step above the day-to-day vicissitudes of politics and notice the bigger tide in motion.
Humanity has always moved towards the new: wires to wireless, analogue to digital, non-renewable to renewable.
For some time, the old exists with the new and the pace of the transition differs across countries but this patchwork of change doesn't mean there is no change.
Technologies that powered growth in the past are collectors’ items today. The typewriter is an ornament in hipster cafes. The kerosene lamp, which fuelled John D Rockefeller’s ascent to billionaire status, has no role in modern households. The gramophone has become a curiosity, and the physicality of music, movies, and media has been supplanted by ephemeral digital forms.
It turns out that the “wide-eyed and unscientific” renewable energy optimists might be committing the same folly as those who advocated for wireless telephony, Internet, and the railways – the folly of being able to envision new worlds, new modes, and new pathways to prosperity.
At the heart of our issue is a status quo bias. We write pieces stating “coal is king” in 2019, little realizing that this will become a cautionary tale. A masterpiece in myopia.
The data supports optimism
If we anchor our expectations to data, we can see something very striking: renewable energy and complementary technologies like batteries have experienced exponential cost declines.3 Yet our attitudes are far from exponential.
We are trained to think slow and steady wins the race. Programmed to be cautious. However, we must tee up our thoughts with the data and admit that we've constantly underestimated clean energy (Figure 1).
Figure 1: Reality outperforms expectations when it comes to solar growth
Tapping into the font of all energy
An awe-inspiring transition is occurring. Humanity is converging with nature. Evolution selected solar energy as its powerhouse and this is why we live on a green planet. Humans are finally realising they can tap the sun directly too. The convergence is profound and poetic.
As I like to point out to my students, extracting fossil fuels is nothing but mining ancient solar energy.
Distinguishing between short-term fluctuations and long-term trends
While the road to a new paradigm is seldom without its challenges, solutions abound. Mistakes will happen and lessons will be learnt. But this is the normal learning curve of any socio-technical transition.
Once again, these blips should not be confused with the absence of a transition. Clean energy has a self-sustaining momentum and once the floodgates are open, they’re difficult to close.
The existential politics of net zero
The paragons of the old technology will kick and fuss, just as the sellers of asbestos and lead piping used every method in the book to survive - disinformation, ad hominem attacks, inflated marketing budgets, litigation, and more.4 But there is a fundamental logical fallacy in continuing to use that which destroys us. The same is true for fossil fuels.
These forces of backlash, which may seem overwhelming right now, are mere tiny drops that will dissolve into oblivion in the bigger tide of technological change.
The way forward
We do not want to be part of the crowd in 2100 that cheers on the Macintosh. We want to be part of the crowd that foresees the winds of change and cheers on the optimists, builders, and drivers of the clean energy revolution. Backseat benchers who engage in pessimism arguably have the easier job here. It is harder to build, solve and dream. Advancing a new clean energy paradigm should be, and can be, our generation’s legacy.
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Brulle, R.J., 2014. Institutionalizing delay: foundation funding and the creation of US climate change counter-movement organizations. Climatic change, 122, pp.681-694
Srivastav, S. and Rafaty, R., 2023. Political strategies to overcome climate policy obstructionism. Perspectives on Politics, 21(2), pp.640-650.
2023 data from Our World in Data.
Way, R., Ives, M.C., Mealy, P. and Farmer, J.D., 2022. Empirically grounded technology forecasts and the energy transition. Joule, 6(9), pp.2057-2082.
Shearer, C., 2015. On corporate accountability: lead, asbestos, and fossil fuel lawsuits. NEW SOLUTIONS: A Journal of Environmental and Occupational Health Policy, 25(2), pp.172-188.
The chart illustrates how the International Energy Agency (IEA) has consistently downgraded predictions of renewables expansion. See how the IEA is biased against renewables at https://davidtoke.substack.com/p/how-the-iea-is-grossly-biased-against
Correction: Germany is meeting 40% of its electricity needs from renewables. This corresponds to 20% of overall energy consumption, a category which includes fossil fuels burned at the point of energy usage such as cars/heavy machinery.
It should also be noted that Germany’s economy has flat-lined since covid, due to their rising energy costs and resulting loss of competitiveness for their industrial sectors.